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HANRSAN TRIBUNE:THINKING NEW PERSPECTIVES
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Nepal’s Faltering Peace Process
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Despite successful elections and a lasting military ceasefire, Nepal’s peace process is facing its most severe tests yet.

Nepal’s Faltering Peace Process,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the fragile state of Nepal’s peace process. Ten months after the elections, the constitution-writing process is finally getting underway, but major parts of the peace deal remain unimplemented. Impunity is rife, and public security alarmingly weak. The consensus underlying the process has frayed, relationships between the parties are increasingly acrimonious, and fundamental elements of the deal are being challenged. Key political players, particularly the governing Maoists and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC), urgently need to rebuild consensus on the way forward.

“The Maoists must take the first steps to restore trust by proving their commitment to non-violence and political pluralism”, says Rhoderick Chalmers, Crisis Group’s South Asia Deputy Project Director. “In turn, their opponents should offer constructive criticism within the framework of the peace process rather than spoiling for its own sake”.

The Maoist-led administration’s first six months have been frustrating, with the government’s achievements overshadowed by poorly handled controversies. The Maoists’ longer-term intentions remain suspect, their strong-arm tactics still allied to a revolutionary strategy aimed at a people’s republic. There is little unity of effort or intent among their coalition partners and the opposition NC is in organisational and political disarray. The established parties have yet to face up to the need for reform to counter their poor past record, become more representative and reconnect with voters.

Very different interests and positions remain to be bridged – a task that is possible but that cannot be wished away with over-optimistic language. Heightened tensions between the Maoists and the Nepalese Army underline the urgency of tackling the future of the security sector. Issues such as the implementation of federalism will generate intense debate. Addressing these challenges is the job of Nepal’s leaders. But the international community must recognise the fragility of the process and be prepared to stick with it.

International actors have played important roles in promoting peace and now need to maintain consistent pressure on all parties to live up to their commitments and encourage them to face the threats to peace. Allowing parts of the peace agreements to drift into abeyance will put the entire process at risk.

“A successfully completed peace process could have broad positive effects for the Nepalese people and for the region”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “The need is for carefully targeted assistance and political pressure”.

February 20, 2009 | 1:30 AM Comments  0 comments



Foreign investment dispute resolution mechanisms ill-prepared to deal with HR impacts
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A growing number of disputes between foreign investors and host governments are being determined within a closed, often secretive web of judicial tribunals that are ill-equipped to deal with the human rights impacts of investment projects. This is the main finding of a new report released today by Right & Democracy (the International Centre for Human Rights and Democratic Development), entitled Bilateral Investment Treaties and Human Rights: Mapping the role of human rights law within investor-state arbitration.

The report, which is the result of a two-year research initiative by Rights & Democracy, describes the foreign investment protection regime as a maze of more than 2600 bilateral investment treaties and free-trade agreements designed to protect investors and their assets. While the agreements place strict legal restrictions on what actions can be taken by host governments, they impose no limits and confer no responsibilities on investors, even with respect to the protection of human rights.

Through a review of recent and current investment treaty dispute proceedings, chief researcher and author Luke Peterson describes in the report how some investors have invoked human rights jurisprudence to support their claims against governments. Conversely, there is only one example – revealed here for the first time – in which a respondent host-government has presented human rights arguments in its defence against the company claims.

"No one doubts that investment and the arbitration of investment disputes have direct implications for the human rights of people living in the project area," said Carole Samdup, Senior Advisor, Economic and Social Rights at Rights & Democracy. "But governments have an obligation to protect their people from human rights violations, even if those violations result from foreign investment projects. Signing investment treaties should not interfere with that obligation."

February 20, 2009 | 1:29 AM Comments  0 comments



"Unregulated Money in Politics Is Greatest Corruption Threat globally"
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Iraq and Somalia Included For First Time in New Report Assessing Anti-Corruption Mechanisms and Government Accountability in 57 Countries.

Regardless of income levels, the #1 corruption threat facing a majority of countries
is the unregulated flow of money into the political process, a new report finds. The report, a major investigative study of 57 countries, was released today by Global Integrity, an award-winning international nonprofit organization that tracks governance and corruption trends globally.

“For the third straight year, poor transparency around the financing of political parties and candidates was the weakest element of most countries’ anti-corruption frameworks,” said Global Integrity’s Managing Director, Nathaniel Heller. “If we’re serious about rolling back corruption and abuse of power in both the developed and developing worlds, more effective safeguards to curb the influence of money in politics are desperately needed. The Rod Blagojevichs of the world are just the tip of the iceberg.”

The Global Integrity Report: 2008 covers developed countries such as Canada, Japan and Italy as well as dozens of the world’s emerging markets and developing nations, from Argentina and China to the West Bank and Iraq. Rather than measure perceptions of corruption, the report assesses the accountability mechanisms and transparency measures in place (or not) to prevent corruption through more than 300 “Integrity Indicators.” Gaps in those safeguards suggest where corruption is more likely to occur.

Global Integrity’s new Grand Corruption Watch List, introduced as part of the 2008 report, includes Angola, Belarus, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Iraq, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Serbia, Somalia, the West Bank, and Yemen, all countries viewed at serious risk for high-level corruption. The Watch List identifies countries where the lack of effective conflicts of interest regulations, unregulated flows of money into the political process, and poor oversight over large state-owned enterprises combine to pose a systemic risk of large-scale theft of public resources. “Watch List countries are unfortunately characterized by a toxic mix of corruption risk factors that should be cause for alarm,” said Heller.

Other major findings of the report include the following:
. The most significant anti-corruption failure in much of the Arab world is poor access to government information. While the countries in the Middle East and North Africa assessed in the 2008 Report struggle to match global medians on many factors, their comprehensive lack of effective access to government information is virtually double those countries’ deficit on any other issue assessed by Global Integrity.

. Several key countries experienced gains or backsliding since 2007. Important anticorruption improvements were noted in Bangladesh and Nigeria; in China, a more positive assessment was linked to the introduction of a new regulation granting citizens access to government information. Noticeable decliners included Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ecuador; Georgia also slipped for the second straight year and continues to struggle consolidating democratic gains since the 2003 Rose Revolution.

. Corruption and transparency challenges appear to be worsening on the Horn of Africa, threatening to exacerbate tensions in an already-fragile security situation. Drops in performance in Kenya and Ethiopia, combined with Somalia’s ignominious honor of boasting the worst-ever overall Global Integrity country score, do not bode well for establishing the kinds of checks and balances in all three countries that could promote good governance and improve stability.

“The country assessments that comprise the Report offer among the most detailed, evidence-based evaluations of anti-corruption mechanisms available anywhere in the world,” said Global Integrity’s International Director, Marianne Camerer. “They provide policymakers, investors, and citizens alike with the information to understand the governance challenges unique to each country and to take action.”

February 20, 2009 | 1:28 AM Comments  0 comments



Asia's Local Currency Bond Markets to Expand This year- ADB
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Emerging East Asia's local currency bond markets are expected to expand this year with several governments likely to sell debt to pump-prime their economies.

Companies are also expected to turn to local markets to refinance or raise fresh funds, says the latest issue of the Asian Development Bank’s Asia Bond Monitor (ABM).
However, there are risks. Increased sovereign bond sales could raise yields, making issuance costlier. Also, investor concerns over sustained fiscal deficits could push up risk premiums and hurt sovereign credit ratings of some economies.

Companies face greater financing risks with borrowing costs remaining high and may get crowded out by higher debt issuance by governments. With Asia's financial firms huge buyers of government's bonds, debt sales need to be managed carefully to maintain financial stability.

"The economic outlook remains gloomy," said Jong-Wha Lee, Head of the ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration. "Several Asian nations will rely more on local currency bonds to finance their fiscal stimulus packages. This provides an excellent opportunity for the region to further develop a more dynamic domestic bond market."

Overall, emerging East Asia's local currency bond markets held up well in the face of the global financial storm, continuing to expand throughout 2008. By end-December, total outstanding local currency bonds were US$3.7 trillion, 14.9% above the end-2007 level. The increase, however, was below the 17.6% annual growth rate in the third quarter of the year.
Foreign holdings of Asia's local currency government bonds appear to have held steady in most markets, indicating offshore investors have faith in emerging East Asia’s local currency sovereign debt.

Total local currency bond issuance in the region fell 15.1% at the end of December versus the end of September and tumbled 59.0% versus the end of 2007. That was largely because central banks and monetary authorities no longer needed to issue paper for sterilization purposes given capital flowed out of the region in the second half of 2008 after hefty net inflows in the first half of the year.

Excluding issuance from central banks and monetary authorities, fourth quarter government bond sales in the region were up 5.8% over the third quarter total, showing that there remains investor demand for safe-haven securities. Gross corporate bond sales increased slightly on the quarter but fell on the year.

The market in the People’s Republic of China - $2.2 trillion in outstanding bonds as of end-2008 - continues as the largest emerging East Asian issuer, accounting for most of the growth in the region's local currency bond markets. Viet Nam, however, posted the fastest quarterly rate of growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and also grew more than other countries for the year as a whole.

Emerging East Asia refers to the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.

February 10, 2009 | 11:49 PM Comments  0 comments



Timor-Leste: No Time for Complacency
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A year after Timor-Leste’s president José Ramos-Horta was shot, security is markedly improved but at the cost of an army that is unreformed and increasingly unaccountable.

Timor-Leste: No Time for Complacency,* the latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group, says the government has been able to face its most pressing security threats, with armed rebels under control. It has at least temporarily addressed several of the most pressing security threats, in large part by buying off those it sees as potential troublemakers.

“There are worrying signs of disdain for the justice system and civilian control over the army”, says John Virgoe, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director. “The police and army depend too heavily on a few individuals and on personal relationships that have been able to hold the security forces together”.

11 February 2008 was a major crisis for Timor-Leste: a rebel leader killed, the president seriously wounded, and an unsuccessful attack on the prime minister. The government imposed a state of siege and curfew. A week later, as the president lay in hospital, the government brought elements of the army and police under a joint command to track down the remaining rebels.

Since then, former soldiers known as the “petitioners” have been compensated, and a good start has been made on sorting out life for the 30,000 internally displaced persons. But the government’s tactics have often amounted to little more than buying off the complainants. The ready granting of money, rice or other economic inducements to various pressure groups – not just the petitioners and the IDPs, but also veterans, civil servants and others – creates social jealousy, risks distorting the economy and may foster an entitlement culture.

The underlying drivers of conflict – most especially in the security sector – remain. The government has bought time to pursue permanent solutions, but a lasting return to health will require the government to seriously tackle the causes of conflict, including fundamental reforms in the security sector, and to promote rather than undermine the rule of law. Presidential interventions in cases involving political violence have undercut an already-weak justice system. Timor-Leste has seen too much impunity, and too many people have evaded responsibility for their actions.

“The current calm is not cause for complacency”, warns John Virgoe. “The government needs to reform the army and police, but they also need to tolerate dissent, be more transparent, and get a grip on corruption”.

February 10, 2009 | 11:47 PM Comments  0 comments



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